Rom\u00e2nia ar putea ajunge la un record european \u00een privin\u021ba duratei \u00een care dob\u00e2nda de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2ne neschimbat\u0103, dup\u0103 ce Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei a men\u021binut rata de referin\u021b\u0103 la 6,5% \u00eencep\u00e2nd din august 2024. Avertismentul a fost formulat de viceguvernatorul BNR, Cosmin Marinescu, care sus\u021bine c\u0103 actuala politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 ar putea continua \u00eenc\u0103 mai multe trimestre, pe fondul infla\u021biei ridicate, al \u0219ocurilor energetice \u0219i al dezechilibrelor bugetare.<\/p>\n
\u00centr-o analiz\u0103 publicat\u0103 duminic\u0103 pe blogul personal, intitulat\u0103 \u201eStrategia politicii monetare: \u00eentre mecanicism \u0219i recursul la fundamente\u201d, Marinescu a afirmat c\u0103 men\u021binerea dob\u00e2nzii-cheie la acela\u0219i nivel timp de peste doi ani nu ar trebui interpretat\u0103 ca o lips\u0103 de reac\u021bie din partea b\u0103ncii centrale. \u00cen opinia sa, decizia reflect\u0103 evaluarea permanent\u0103 a evolu\u021biei economiei \u0219i a riscurilor la adresa pre\u021burilor.<\/p>\n
Oficialul BNR a ar\u0103tat c\u0103 deciziile luate de banc\u0103 au \u021binut cont de infla\u021bia aflat\u0103 peste \u021bint\u0103, dar \u0219i de raportul dintre cererea \u0219i oferta din economie. El a sus\u021binut c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia traverseaz\u0103 o perioad\u0103 lung\u0103 de \u201e\u00eenghe\u021bare\u201d a politicii monetare, \u00een care rata dob\u00e2nzii a r\u0103mas la 6,5% de peste doi ani.<\/p>\n
Marinescu a mai explicat c\u0103 reducerea dob\u00e2nzii de referin\u021b\u0103 \u00een iulie \u0219i august 2024 a avut loc \u00eentr-un context de sc\u0103dere a infla\u021biei, de la 6,6% la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului 2023 la aproximativ 5% la jum\u0103tatea anului urm\u0103tor. Totu\u0219i, el a spus c\u0103 m\u0103surile de ajustare fiscal\u0103 deveniser\u0103 necesare, iar efectele lor asupra pre\u021burilor reprezentau deja un risc important.<\/p>\n
Potrivit viceguvernatorului, \u00een 2025 infla\u021bia a dep\u0103\u0219it 10% timp de mai multe luni, pe fondul major\u0103rii TVA \u0219i a altor impozite indirecte. Cu toate acestea, BNR nu a crescut dob\u00e2nda-cheie, consider\u00e2nd c\u0103 scumpirile generate de modific\u0103rile fiscale aveau un caracter temporar, iar economia se confrunta deja cu o cerere redus\u0103.<\/p>\n
Marinescu a afirmat c\u0103 o eventual\u0103 majorare a dob\u00e2nzii \u00een 2025 ar fi putut accentua dificult\u0103\u021bile economice \u0219i ar fi contrazis direc\u021bia politicii fiscale. El a sus\u021binut c\u0103 men\u021binerea ratei de referin\u021b\u0103 a evitat \u00eent\u0103rirea caracterului prociclic al politicii monetare.<\/p>\n
\u00cen analiza sa, viceguvernatorul a ar\u0103tat c\u0103 anul 2026 a adus tensiuni geopolitice \u0219i cre\u0219teri ale pre\u021burilor la energie, care au alimentat noi presiuni infla\u021bioniste. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, cererea redus\u0103 din economie a temperat scumpirile, \u00eens\u0103 \u00eentr-un ritm mai modest dec\u00e2t era anticipat.<\/p>\n
Cosmin Marinescu a analizat \u0219i eficien\u021ba strategiei de \u021bintire direct\u0103 a infla\u021biei, adoptat\u0103 de BNR \u00een 2005. Potrivit calculelor sale, Rom\u00e2nia a reu\u0219it s\u0103 se \u00eencadreze \u00een intervalul asociat \u021bintei doar \u00een \u0219ase dintre cei 21 de ani analiza\u021bi, \u00een timp ce \u00een 12 ani infla\u021bia a dep\u0103\u0219it nivelul urm\u0103rit de banca central\u0103.<\/p>\n
Comparativ, el a spus c\u0103 situa\u021bii similare au existat \u0219i \u00een alte state din regiune, dar Rom\u00e2nia se remarc\u0103 printr-o tradi\u021bie infla\u021bionist\u0103 mai ampl\u0103. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, viceguvernatorul a apreciat c\u0103 strategia adoptat\u0103 \u00een urm\u0103 cu peste dou\u0103 decenii a contribuit totu\u0219i la reducerea infla\u021biei fa\u021b\u0103 de perioada anterioar\u0103 anului 2005.<\/p>\n
\u00cen opinia sa, evolu\u021biile recente au ar\u0103tat \u00eens\u0103 limitele unei abord\u0103ri bazate preponderent pe \u021bintirea ratei infla\u021biei.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Viceguvernatorul BNR, Cosmin Marinescu, spune c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia ar putea \u00eenregistra un record european de men\u021binere a dob\u00e2nzii-cheie la 6,5%. El explic\u0103 decizia prin infla\u021bia ridicat\u0103, \u0219ocurile energetice \u0219i dezechilibrele bugetare.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1500,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/glasulpoporului.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/glasulpoporului.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/glasulpoporului.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glasulpoporului.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glasulpoporului.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1501"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/glasulpoporului.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1501\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1502,"href":"https:\/\/glasulpoporului.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1501\/revisions\/1502"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glasulpoporului.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1500"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/glasulpoporului.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glasulpoporului.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glasulpoporului.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}